A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
